Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
